Right-wing terror, media backlash, and voting preferences for the far right
with Felix Haaß and Julian Voß
Revise & resubmit
Over the last decade, many western countries have experienced a surge in right-wing violence and a growing public support for populist radical right parties (PRRP). Previous research suggests that right-wing political mobilization can inspire right-wing violence. However, we know little on the opposite direction of this relationship: how does right-wing violence influence voting preferences for the far right? In this research note, we implement an ``unexpected event during survey'' design to investigate this question. We draw on data from daily surveys on party preferences to analyze temporal shifts in support for the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) before and after the most intense terrorist attack in recent German history. Our findings indicate that right-wing terrorism can have substantive but short-lived negative effects on public support for PRRP. Results of exploratory analyses are in line with the argument that these effects result from a public backlash against PRRP that alienates potential voters.
Decentralized networks and bureaucratic careers in autocracies
with Felix Haaß and Jan Pierskalla
Revise & resubmit
Previous research has demonstrated that ruling elites hand-pick top-level cadres from their personal networks to maximize loyalty. However, similar personal networks also exist among the hundreds of thousands of bureaucrats
on lower levels of the administrative hierarchy. We undertake the first empirical analysis of such networks, focusing on a least-likely case: the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The regime’s highly formalized socialist cadre policy should have left little room for a strong role of informal ties in bureaucratic careers. We draw on detailed biographical data on over 370,000 cadres to investigate if decentralized networks nonetheless shaped promotion practices in the GDR’s bureaucracy. We reconstruct the composition of local work collectives—a center of personal commitment, friendship, and mutual help in the GDR. We demonstrate a substantive role of decentralized career
networks in cadres’ career trajectories, highlighting a so-far underappreciated element of personalized networks in autocracies.
Transitional Justice and Support for Policies of Remembrance after Mass Violence
with Julian Voß
Revise & resubmit
Prior research suggests that punitive transitional justice (TJ) may foster a sense of collective exoneration among members of perpetrator groups, potentially reducing support for remembrance of in-group atrocities in the long term. We employ a two-part empirical strategy to test this potential "hidden cost"’ of TJ in Germany: a vignette experiment manipulating perceptions of the extent of the denazification process and an observational analysis exploiting variance in denazification intensity across occupation zones. Our results reveal that while perceptions of comprehensive Nazi accountability translate into a belief that the entire German in-group has been held accountable, these perceptions do not affect attitudes towards ongoing commemoration or responsibility towards victim groups. Our robust null finding demonstrates that perceptions of justice being served do not undermine support for historical closure on mass violence. These results contribute to the broader literature on TJ’s long-term attitudinal impacts and the determinants of support for historical remembrance, emphasizing the enduring importance of moral over legal perceptions of accountability.
Revisiting History, Reshaping Memory: The Effects of Confronting Ingroup Atrocities
with Anton Peez, Sascha Riaz and Julian Voß
Manuscript under review
How do voters react to challenges of collective memories? We study the controversial "Wehrmacht exhibition'' (1995–1999), which exposed the German public to graphic evidence challenging the "myth of the clean Wehrmacht'' - the false narrative that only the SS, not the military, systematically committed war crimes and perpetrated the Holocaust. To study the exhibition's effects, we leverage survey data of over 830,000 voters in a staggered difference-in-differences setup. We complement this analysis with evidence from over 1,200 letters to the editor, an original survey of Germans born around the end of WWII, and interviews with public figures who spoke at exhibition openings. We find that the exhibition triggered political backlash, particularly among the children of WWII soldiers. However, this backlash was localized and short-lived. We also show that the exhibition effectively shifted public discourse on the Wehrmacht, demonstrating that memory entrepreneurs can overturn self-serving narratives without lasting political repercussions.
Protectors or Security Threats: How Political Orders Shape Citizens’ Views on Militia Behavior
with Jan Koehler and Kristof Gosztonyi
Manuscript under review
What explains citizens’ perceptions of counter-insurgency militias? Previous research has focused on differences in ``objective'' measures of militia performance across militia types, conflicts and country contexts. However, affected citizens may interpret similar militia activities in starkly contrasting ways---either as a menace to communal security or as a bulwark against external threats. We investigate how citizens’ perceptions of militias can change due to dynamics of patronage networks in which militias operate. We argue that stable networks improve citizens' ability to make sense of the (violent) behavior of militias---in terms of general rationales, specific motives and target selection. The resulting perceptions of predictability and agency can make militia behavior seem more tolerable (and avoidable) to citizens. We investigate this argument in northeast Afghanistan. We draw on four waves of standardized household surveys and qualitative interviews spanning the period from 2010 to 2018. Our research design exploits variation in militias’ patronage networks over political geographies and time. Our results corroborate our hypothesis: analogous militia behaviors can evoke disparate perceptions of militia performance conditional upon the context of patronage. This finding contributes to our understanding of how political contexts shape citizens' attitudes towards violent organizations in contexts of conflict
Long-Term Sequences of State-Building and Violent Conflict
Manuscript
A large body of research demonstrates that state capacity is an important correlate of intra-state conflict. However, similar levels of present-day state capacity can result from different historical trajectories of state-building. This paper investigates how the spatio-temporal patterns of long-term expansion of state authority and control can influence current levels of violent unrest. In particular, I argue that specific sequences of state-building can increase the present-day risk of violent conflict: geographical obstacles can isolate territories from state-building processes for extended periods, strengthening non-state institutions. The risk of violence increases once the state has accumulated sufficient capabilities to close this state-building gap. The extension of authority into peripheral territories triggers resistance from among local elites that can mobilize their constituencies against the central state. I investigate this argument in a mixed-methods design that exploits exogenous variation in early state-penetration in Nepal. Areas located below the Himalayan foothills were heavily Malaria-infested preventing the state from establishing meaningful presence until the implementation of a malaria eradication program in the 1950s. I make use of this specificity in Regression Discontinuity (RD) estimations and a qualitative process tracing approach. Findings lend support to the primary arguments of the paper.